Understanding pictures : a study in the design of appropriate visual materials for education in developing countries.

The human resources approach to national development has challenged educators to find ways of communicating with village people that do not rely on the written word. Pictures are being used increasingly as a way to deliver messages to illiterate groups. Recent cross-cultural research has shown, however, that many of the assumptions made about the kinds of information that can be delivered through pictures needs to be re-examined. Part I of the study sets forth the rationale for using pictures in nonformal educational settings and examines two current approaches to the problem of picture perception. The constructive theory maintains that pictures are inherently ambiguous and require active interpretation on the part of the viewer. The registration theory suggests that pictures give information which derives from the ecology of light. In this view, the recognition of graphic depictions is considered to be a fairly passive matter and a gift allowed to us by the environment. The evidence of cross-cultural research in picture perception which fives support to each of these positions is reviewed. Part I also discusses cross-cultural studies of intelligence and examines a body of literature which demonstrates that the intellectual demands of village life are often such that they do not stimulate some of the higher cognitive processes identified by Piaget. The author takes the position advanced by Piaget and Vygotsky that the development of conceptual awareness advances from an intuitive level to one of conscious understanding. Bruner\u27s thesis concerning three modes of learning is also discussed. The traditional modes of learning in village settings are enactive (learning by doing) and iconic (learning by modeling). Symbolic learning which is learning by being told, usually takes place out of the context of ongoing action and, as such, is a radical departure from traditional practice. Like written language, pictures provide a form of symbolically coded experience, and in many cases the learner must be consciously aware of the cures of pictorial expression and how they are used, in order to properly decode their meaning. Part II details an empirical study carried out in Nepal with four samples of adult subjects: villagers with no schooling, villagers wit some primary or secondary schooling, workers in a furniture factory in the capital city of Kathmandu, and students at Tribhuvan University\u27s Institute of Engineering. A series of sixteen experiments was carried out. The abilities tested were the recognition of depicted objects, the understanding of spatial relationships in concrete situations, and the comprehension of pictorial space. In an effort to avoid introducing arbitrary graphic conventions, photographs and line drawings based on photographs were primarily used as the pictorial stimuli. The recognition of familiar objects in pictures was found to be a great deal easier than the comprehension of pictorial space. The village samples showed a generally poor understanding of euclidian and projective relationships both with regard to real objects and in interpreting pictures. The furniture factory workers and the engineering students performed at higher levels on all experiments, showing that environmental influences or specific experiences of some kind are important both in the development of spatial abilities and in the understanding of pictorial space. On the other hand, topological relationships in pictures were easily grasped by almost all of the villagers. The author concludes that perspective information was understood at only an intuitive level by the majority of the villagers tested and could not be consciously applied to the interpretation of spatial relationships in pictures. Projective information was consistently interpreted topologically by most of the village subjects. The author suggests that the recognition of familiar objects in pictures is largely an ability which does not require special learning, but that the interpretation of pictorial space is an active process which calls for conscious awareness of projective principles . Recommendations for the design of visual materials for use in nonformal educational settings are made

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Studies of new Higgs boson interactions through nonresonant HH production in the b¯bγγ fnal state in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for nonresonant Higgs boson pair production in the b ¯bγγ fnal state is performed using 140 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. This analysis supersedes and expands upon the previous nonresonant ATLAS results in this fnal state based on the same data sample. The analysis strategy is optimised to probe anomalous values not only of the Higgs (H) boson self-coupling modifer κλ but also of the quartic HHV V (V = W, Z) coupling modifer κ2V . No signifcant excess above the expected background from Standard Model processes is observed. An observed upper limit µHH < 4.0 is set at 95% confdence level on the Higgs boson pair production cross-section normalised to its Standard Model prediction. The 95% confdence intervals for the coupling modifers are −1.4 < κλ < 6.9 and −0.5 < κ2V < 2.7, assuming all other Higgs boson couplings except the one under study are fxed to the Standard Model predictions. The results are interpreted in the Standard Model efective feld theory and Higgs efective feld theory frameworks in terms of constraints on the couplings of anomalous Higgs boson (self-)interactions

Measurement of the H → γ γ and H → ZZ∗ → 4 cross-sections in pp collisions at √s = 13.6 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive Higgs boson production cross section is measured in the di-photon and the Z Z∗ → 4 decay channels using 31.4 and 29.0 fb−1 of pp collision data respectively, collected with the ATLAS detector at a centre of-mass energy of √s = 13.6 TeV. To reduce the model dependence, the measurement in each channel is restricted to a particle-level phase space that closely matches the chan nel’s detector-level kinematic selection, and it is corrected for detector effects. These measured fiducial cross-sections are σfid,γ γ = 76+14 −13 fb, and σfid,4 = 2.80 ± 0.74 fb, in agreement with the corresponding Standard Model predic tions of 67.6±3.7 fb and 3.67±0.19 fb. Assuming Standard Model acceptances and branching fractions for the two chan nels, the fiducial measurements are extrapolated to the full phase space yielding total cross-sections of σ (pp → H) = 67+12 −11 pb and 46±12 pb at 13.6 TeV from the di-photon and Z Z∗ → 4 measurements respectively. The two measure ments are combined into a total cross-section measurement of σ (pp → H) = 58.2±8.7 pb, to be compared with the Stan dard Model prediction of σ (pp → H)SM = 59.9 ± 2.6 p

Search for the Zγ decay mode of new high-mass resonances in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a search for narrow, high-mass resonances in the Zγ final state with the Z boson decaying into a pair of electrons or muons. The √s = 13 TeV pp collision data were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and have an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. The data are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model background expectation. Upper limits are set on the resonance production cross section times the decay branching ratio into Zγ. For spin-0 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion, the observed limits at 95% confidence level vary between 65.5 fb and 0.6 fb, while for spin-2 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion (or quark–antiquark initial states) limits vary between 77.4 (76.1) fb and 0.6 (0.5) fb, for the mass range from 220 GeV to 3400 GeV

Search for lepton-favour violation in high-mass dilepton final states using 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for a heavy particle decaying into different-flavour, dilepton final states, using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV collected in 2015–2018 by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Final states with electrons, muons and hadronically decaying tau leptons are considered (eμ, eτ or μτ). No significant excess over the Standard Model predictions is observed. Upper limits on the production cross-section are set as a function of the mass of a Z′ boson, a supersymmetric τ-sneutrino, and a quantum black-hole. The observed 95% CL lower mass limits obtained on a typical benchmark model Z′ boson are 5.0 TeV (eμ), 4.0 TeV (eτ), and 3.9 TeV (μτ), respectively